Kuok Kah's Top Stable Genius Moments 3: Analysis is a form of science.
Let me be blunt here: Magic is anti-science. Simply put, you can't use science to explain how magic works. At the same time, usage of magic means using a method that goes against science. Analysis, on the other hand, is a form of science.
Long story short, Yuan Shao was finally defeated at the Battle of Guandu. However, there's a problem: Yuan Shao's three sons. Namely, Yuan Tan, Yuan Xi, and Yuan Shang in the proper traditional order.
This isn't magic. This is analysis, a form of science. When you analyse a situation, you can't do it as if you're Harry Potter or Hermoine Granger. Yes, you can afford to control birds and beasts to be your eyes. I've read stuff from R.A Salvatore and that's what he did for Pikel Bouldershoulder. But when it comes to seeing and knowing, you have to understand the structure of the situation. This is not something magic can give you. You need a scientific approach to know which parts of the structure are moving and which parts are not in order to predict the next step. In other words, any situation is a structure waiting to be understood and utilised. If you think magic is everything, then those without talent should just die. Like what Jiraiya said below.
Seriously, magic without brains is like brawn without brains.
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Seriously, I don't spend 100% of my time on stuff like Berserk, Attack of the Titans, and Akame ga Kill! where people are jerks, magic or no magic.
When we talk about karma being a bitch, you don't have to believe in it. But when I say history is the alpha bitch, you better believe me. History isn't so much a case of his story, but rather a real-life story involving humanity. It doesn't matter whether we're liberals or conservatives, Wiccans or Christians. We're often too dumb to learn from lessons of the past.
The same went for Yuan Shao. Now it must be stated that shortly after the Battle of Guandu, Yuan Shao died. However, he left behind a problem. In ancient China, favouring the younger son was a taboo. We're talking about a dumb mistake done by more than just one person in the 24 history textbooks of China.
During the Han dynasty, Liu Bang pulled off this dumb move. As the result, it created political chaos through Empress Dowager Lu's ruthlessness. When Sun Quan decided to do the same thing, history became the alpha bitch. Even Cao Cao's family wasn't spared from this nonsense due to Cao Pi's ruthless streak (to be fair, the son was worse than the father when it came to being an iron-fisted jerk). Most notably against his youngest brother Cao Zhi which resulted in the most famous poem involving beans, a cooking pot, and why schadenfreude shouldn't exist among brothers. Not to mention every Christian's favourite number as well. As for the current era, we have Oxleygate in our backyard. In the backyard of our ex-boss, we have the feud between the prince from somewhere down south and the prince from somewhere up north.
Yuan Shao favoured his third son Yuan Shang. While Yuan Xi most likely had no issues with it, Yuan Tan was understandably incensed. And this was when Cao Cao's generals decided to call for a follow-up attack on the Super Yuan Bros. After all, the friend of my enemy is my enemy and the enemy of my enemy is my friend (note: This statement is intended to inform all of us how murky politics can be most of the time).
Kuok Kah advised against this move for a good reason.
[“袁绍爱此二子，莫适立也。有郭图、逢纪为之谋臣，必交斗其间，还相离也。急之则相持，缓之而后争心生。不如南向荆州若征刘表者，以待其变；变成而后击之，可一举定也。”]
Translate:
["Yuan Shao loved these two sons of his (i.e. Yuan Tan and Yuan Shang) while never deciding who should be his heir. With Guo Tu and Pang Ji as their advisers, they will surely fight and scheme against each other. If we decide to up the offensive, they will be forced to unite. If we slow ourselves down, one will turn on the other. Why not we turn south towards the Jing Province as if we're preparing to attack Liu Biao in order to observe the situation? Once the opportunity presents itself, we can strike and success will be ours."]
Now it must be stated that when Kuok Kah made this advice, a few things must be noted.
1. In his Thesis of Ten Victories and Defeats, Kuok Kah pointed out the kind of advisers Yuan Shao was comfortable with. When you have talented people talking cock and slandering their betters, it doesn't matter where they get their degrees from. So no, it's not karma's fault. Either blame Yuan Shao for being stupid or Kuok Kah for being a stable genius.
2. Prior to Kuok Kah's statement of foresight, Cao Cao actually carried on from where he last left off. Namely, pressing home the offensive against the remnants of the Yuan faction. More specifically at Liyang. And yes, Cao Cao was ever full of win.
[从破袁绍，绍死，又从讨谭、尚于黎阳，连战数克。]
3. What this means was that Yuan Tan and Yuan Shang didn't even have the time to stage their own battle royal. Which was why Kuok Kah told his boss to cool it so that implosion would be possible. In fact, the victory at Liyang most likely resulted in the enemy's retreat more than a kanzen shouri.
No magic was involved in the process of analysis. Kuok Kah saw the situation as a structure comprising of different parts. By joining the dots and connecting the pieces of a jigsaw puzzle, he knew which parts were moving and which ones were not.
The moving parts were Yuan Tan, Yuan Shang, Guo Tu, and Pang Ji. The reason why being that whatever movement coming from the feuding factions would push them into either an implosion or a weakened state waiting to be picked off.
When it came to the parts not moving, we got the Jing Province and Liu Biao. The reason why being Liu Biao's indecisive nature and the fact that Kuok Kah was calling for a decoy approach (i.e. any show of trying to invade the Jing Province was meant to bluff the Yuan faction into complacency and implosion).
Which now comes to the most problematic part of Kuok Kah's advice; What if nothing happened? The answer is very simple. Just attack the Jing Province. In this case, what was originally intended as the decoy would become the real deal. To understand the importance of the Jing Province, one only needs to understand why the U.S and China have been so obsessed with South East Asia. In fact, it's the same reason why Moon Jae-in has been putting in more diplomatic efforts in the region as well. If you control South East Asia, you can control more than just one-third of a continent. Australia will be forced to be your friend while India will have to make certain decisions. If you control the Jing Province, you can make further inroads either to the west into the Yi Province or the east into Jiangdong. In fact, the number one priority during the Mongol invasion against the Southern Song dynasty was none other than the Jing Province. Incidentally, this was also where the early Chinese migrants hailed from if we're talking about our very own Singapore itself.
So did Kuok Kah's brand of science work? Definitely, Scarily enough, the Yuan brothers soon started devouring each other over the control of the Ji Province. Yuan Tan was defeated by Yuan Shang, hence justifying Yuan Shao's decision to favour his number 3 instead of the firstborn son. Yuan Tan had no choice but to send his adviser Xing Pi to seek protection from Cao Cao (i.e. waving the white flag). Cao Cao responded by bailing out Yuan Tan's backside and moved to the region of Ye where it'd be easier for him to supervise the situation up north. Yuan Tan apparently couldn't be trusted, thus Cao Cao whooped his backside at Nanpi after saving it in the first place. The Ji Province was finally Cao Cao's and Kuok Kah was made the Marquis of Weiyang which was a big deal. It's like getting knighted by the royal granny herself.
[军至西平，谭、尚果争冀州。谭为尚军所败，走保平原，遣辛毗乞降。太祖还救之，遂从定邺。又从攻谭于南皮，冀州平。封嘉洧阳亭侯。]
At the same time, Kuok Kah didn't just stop at there. In an era of turmoil, getting capable people to work for you is a must. It doesn't matter whether you're Lincoln or Jefferson so long you can get a Robert E. Lee or William Sherman. Like every great leader, Cao Cao knew this logic. Like every stable genius, Kuok Kah advised Cao Cao to hire capable people of repute from the provinces of Qing, Ji, You, and Bing. Regions previously under the Yuan faction. Not for military purposes but for running the daily affairs serving the people. This was recorded in Fuzi.
[河北既平，太祖多辟召青、冀、幽、并知名之士，渐臣使之，以为省事掾属。皆嘉之谋也。]
Kuok Kah's Top Stable Genius Moments 3.5: Seriously, is my boss a ****ing moron?
Of course not! Did Cao Cao look like a ****ing moron to you? But there's a hiccup as recorded the Book of Wei.
[刘备来奔，以为豫州牧。或谓太祖曰：“备有英雄志，今不早图，后必为患。”
太祖以问嘉，嘉曰：“有是。然公提剑起义兵，为百姓除暴，推诚仗信以招俊杰，犹惧其未也。今备有英雄名，以穷归己而害之，是以害贤为名，则智士将自疑，回心择主，公谁与定天下？夫除一人之患，以沮四海之望，安危之机，不可不察！”
太祖笑曰：“君得之矣。”]
Translate:
When Liu Bei arrived to pledge his cause to Cao Cao, he was made the governor of Yu Province. Taizu (i,e. Cao Cao) was advised: "Liu Bei has the ambition of a hero. If you don't eliminate him now, he'll become a threat to you in the future."
Taize sought Guo Jia's counsel and Guo Jia answered: "That's true. However, when you raised an army in the name of righteousness and pledged to help the common people eliminate tyrants, you attracted talented and capable people to serve under you based on your sincerity and integrity. Liu Bei is known to be a hero, so if you kill him when he comes to serve you, you will be viewed as someone who harms men of virtue. Other talented persons will start to doubt you and may even change their minds about serving you. If that happens, who will help you achieve your goals? Therefore, it's imperative that you carefully consider the consequences of ruining your good reputation for the sake of eliminating one man who poses a threat to you."
Taizu laughed and said: "I understand."
But Fuzi had a seemingly different account.
[初，刘备来降，太祖以客礼待之，使为豫州牧。嘉言于太祖曰：“备有雄才而甚得众心。张飞、关羽者，皆万人之敌也，为之死用。嘉观之，备终不为人下，其谋未可测也。古人有言：'一日纵敌，数世之患。'宜早为之所。”
是时，太祖奉天子以号令天下，方招怀英雄以明大信，未得从嘉谋。会太祖使备要击袁术，嘉与程昱俱驾而谏太祖曰：“放备，变作矣！”
时备已去，遂举兵以叛。太祖恨不用嘉之言。]
Translate:
In the beginning, when Liu Bei surrendered, Taizu treated him as a guest and made him the governor of Yu Province. Guo Jia said to Taizu: "Liu Bei has great ambitions and has won the hearts of many people. Zhang Fei and Guan Yu are formidable fighters and they have pledged to serve him with their lives. From what I observe, Liu Bei will never truly submit to anyone, and his intentions are unclear. The people in the past once said, 'If you let the enemy off today, they will become a threat to you for a long time.' You should settle (Liu Bei) soon."
At the time, Cao Cao was using Emperor Xian as a figurehead to command respect and had attracted many heroes to serve under him so he did not heed Guo Jia's advice. When Cao Cao later sent Liu Bei with an army to attack Yuan Shu, Guo Jia and Cheng Yu warned Cao, "Liu Bei will rebel if you let him go!"
By then, Liu Bei had already left and he really did rebel against Cao Cao as he later seized control of Xu Province from Che Zhou, the provincial governor appointed by Cao Cao. Cao Cao regretted not following Guo Jia's advice.
Pei Songzhi never stated which version read like something done by The Christian Science Monitor and which version read like something done by InfoWars. But what if both were the two sides of the same coin? Credit goes to Prof Yi Zhongtian even though he's known to be overly dramatic and prideful at times.
Although to be fair and honest, his view actually came from Zhou Zexiong. Prof Yi said so himself as well.
Interestingly, the account of Fuzi was pro-Guo Jia once you read closer. Therefore, it's very easy to believe in the Book of Wei while dismissing Fuzi's version of this event. Yet, Cheng Yu's account actually supported Fuzi.
[后又遣备至徐州要击袁术，昱与郭嘉说太祖曰：“公前日不图备，昱等诚不及也。今借之以兵，必有异心。”]
Translate:
When sending Liu Bei to the Xu Province to attack Yuan Shu, Cheng Yu and Guo Jia told Taizu: "It's arguable you turned down our suggestion to kill Liu Bei earlier, but it's a certainty that he will betray you if lent a force."
While Cheng Yu's account said "our suggestion", the original text was pointing at those who agree with Cheng Yu's suggestion to bump off Liu Bei. [...昱等诚不及也。] At the same time, Cheng Yu was known to be an abrasive person capable of starting a fight with just about anyone from those with a Higher Nitec to Li Shengwu who happened to have a Harvard university degree. But did he start a fight with Kuok Kah?
Zhou Zexiong's interpretation of the event hinges on the phrase "You should settle (Liu Bei) soon". [...宜早为之所。] This would corroborate perfectly with what was written in Cheng Yu's account. While Cao Cao was no ****ing moron, it's clear that he misinterpreted Kuok Kah's advise to keep Liu Bei under 24/7 surveillance as something more merciful. Ever wondered whether there's anything in common between Abraham Lincoln and ethnic minorities in the U.S?
To be cont'd...
Next up: Seriously, this is dragging on for too long. Hopefully, I only need two more posts to end it. The whole thing is getting ridiculous.
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