https://republicofotters.blogspot.com/2018/10/yolo-because-yodo-pt-v.html
Kuok Kah's Top Stable Genius Moments 4: Great minds think alike
Kuok Kah's Top Stable Genius Moments 4: Great minds think alike
No, Trump isn't involved in the title above. When I say great minds think alike, I'm referring to the boss and his employee. Never mind the likelihood of both Cao Cao and Kuok Kah being womanisers. After all, history never said whether Kuok Kah was a womaniser like his boss.
[太祖欲速征刘备，议者惧军出，袁绍击其后，进不得战而退失所据。
...太祖疑，以问嘉。嘉劝太祖曰：“绍性迟而多疑，来必不速。备新起，众心未附，急击之必败。此存亡之机，不可失也。”
...太祖疑，以问嘉。嘉劝太祖曰：“绍性迟而多疑，来必不速。备新起，众心未附，急击之必败。此存亡之机，不可失也。”
太祖曰：“善。”
遂东征备。备败奔绍，绍果不出。]
Translate:
Taizu desired to swiftly attack Liu Bei, But the advisers feared that once their forces were deployed, Yuan Shao would attack from behind. Hence, losing their base of power.
...Taizu hesitated and asked Guo Jia for his opinion. Guo Jia advised Taizu: "Yuan Shao's character is full of indecisiveness and suspicions, thus he won't arrive as soon as possible. Liu Bei has just established his influence, therefore the people have yet to trust him fully. Once we launch a fast assault, he will be defeated. This is a moment of survival or defeat. We cannot pass up such a chance."
...Taizu hesitated and asked Guo Jia for his opinion. Guo Jia advised Taizu: "Yuan Shao's character is full of indecisiveness and suspicions, thus he won't arrive as soon as possible. Liu Bei has just established his influence, therefore the people have yet to trust him fully. Once we launch a fast assault, he will be defeated. This is a moment of survival or defeat. We cannot pass up such a chance."
Taizu answered: "Agreed."
Upon launching an attack to the east, Liu Bei was defeated and forced to flee towards Yuan Shao. Indeed Yuan Shao didn't capitalise.
Above excerpt was from Fuzi. As I've said before, Fuzi's account on Kuok Kah was pro-Kuok. So did such an event happen? The answer is yes. The evidence lies in Cao Cao's account.
[公将自东征备，诸将皆曰：“与公争天下者，袁绍也。今绍方来而弃之东，绍乘人后，若何？”
公曰：“夫刘备，人杰也，今不击，必为后患。袁绍虽有大志，而见事遟，必不动也。”]
Translate:
The Duke (Cao Cao) was prepared to attack Liu Bei at the east, but his generals asked: "The one vying against you is Yuan Shao. Now that he's coming but yet m'lord is abandoning the battle for the east (i.e. where Liu Bei is), what if he attacks us from behind unprepared?"
The Duke replied: "Liu Bei is an exceptional hero. If we don't attack him now, he will become a major threat in the future. Although Yuan Shao has great ambition, he has a slow sense of perception. Therefore, he will not move."
Pei Songzhi pointed out the error in Fuzi's account by stating that the idea of attacking Liu Bei without fearing Yuan Shao would strike from behind came from Cao Cao. Hence, it's illogical for Kuok Kah to say the same thing. [臣松之案武纪，决计征备，量绍不出，皆出自太祖。此云用嘉计，则为不同。]
But there's a blind spot in Pei Songzhi's statement. It's like assuming Kuok Kah's prediction that Sun Ce would eventually be assassinated was a case of foresight rather than accurately predicting he wouldn't be able to reach Xuchang to grab the Emperor. That it's more of a freak coincidence than anything else. [又本传称（自）嘉料孙策轻佻，必死于匹夫之手，诚为明于见事。然自非上智，无以知其死在何年也。今正以袭许年死，此盖事之偶合。]
Let's explain Pei Songzhi's view on Kuok Kah's prediction being a freak coincidence. How accurate should it be? Pei Songzhi was referring to the timing, not the inevitable. Therefore, any statement I've made rebutting Pei Songzhi is now officially a case of ownself rebutt ownself. Ownself as in myself. Of course, this is NOT to say Kuok Kah got lucky. He knew it's going to happen. Just that he didn't know when. This was why Pei Songzhi stated Kuok Kah's analysis was one of exceptional foresight. It's like saying something like this below instead of trying to guess who is going to win which half of the Congress.
Any assumption that swing voters=Sun Ce should be seen as an unfortunate case of 2+2=5.
As for Pei Songzhi's statement that there's a contradiction between Fuzi's account and Cao Cao's version of the story in terms of attacking Liu Bei, it's not that straightforward. In Fuzi's side of the story, it was only stated that Cao Cao hesitated. [...太祖疑] When you hesitate on something, it means you got a decent idea on what to expect or do. But do you have confidence that it would turn out fine? Hesitation is no hesitation if you got the confidence. Never mind the chances of failure when it comes to winning the heart of Emilia 404/GG Taeser/Gakui. A possible explanation to the apparent contradiction lies in how strong the opposition was when Cao Cao confidently said those words in his account: “夫刘备，人杰也，今不击，必为后患。袁绍虽有大志，而见事遟，必不动也。”
Any form of opposition doesn't necessarily come before or after. It can also come both before and after. Cao Cao was no Trump. If the likes of Xun You, Zhong Yao, and Jia Xu (not to mention Xun Yu as well) ended up asking whether such a statement should be reconsidered AFTER the likes of Yue Jin, Cao Hong, and Teo Boon Wan (not to be confused with a politician named Khaw Boon Wan) objected to it, who are we to assume Cao Cao wouldn't hesitate? Were there such moments where everybody else had his suspicion concerning the situation? The answer is yes. Prior to Cao Cao launching a daring raid resulting in a massive loss of supplies on Yuan Shao's end, who actually trusted Xu You's words that doing so would be a good idea? Apparently, no one believed the words of an unproven traitor. Except for Jia Xu and Xun You. So you see, there's already a precedent set in place. Not the daring attack on Wuchao which indirectly resulted in Cao Cao winning the Battle of Guandu, but Kuok Kah assuring his boss upon hesitation setting in. Hence, Cao Cao's account stating Guo Jia encouraging Cao Cao to go ahead. [郭嘉亦劝公，遂东击备，破之...] Effectively, you can see this as a coin with two sides instead of two tails or two heads.
We must understand what's truly at stake. Cao Cao's assumption was spot on, but the act of analysing is nonetheless a form of science. If Cao Cao could pull off a magic spell, there's no need for his words to be proven true afterwards. Instead, he could just hex Yuan Shao and victory would be his. That wouldn't be science. Rather, it'd be an anti-scientific approach in getting things done. Remember, Yuan Shao actually boasted a far superior army before Cao Cao bumped off the supplies together with Chunyu Qiong. So what makes us think this was just a Roy Moore or Pennsylvania moment for Cao Cao? Because it's not.
Note: Interestingly, it seemed that Yuan Shao was always the stingy man when it came to offering aid. During Cao Cao's campaign against Lu Bu, he actually did nothing to intervene. Apparently, my resources are NOT your resources.
Note: Interestingly, it seemed that Yuan Shao was always the stingy man when it came to offering aid. During Cao Cao's campaign against Lu Bu, he actually did nothing to intervene. Apparently, my resources are NOT your resources.
Kuok Kah's Top Stable Genius Moments 4: Final glory=Endless glory
Despite the violence and anti-science cleavage done by Koei Tecmo (seriously, try playing any Dead Or Alive game and you'd have experienced a hormonal Fatal Rush. Team Ninja was actually part of Koei Tecmo), one thing they managed to do right was Kuok Kah's image song for Dynasty Warriors.
The final battle against the Yuan faction would be Kuok Kah's final battle as well. The timing couldn't be any more ironic. While Kuok Kah was to be fondly remembered by Cao Cao as the man capable of aiding him in the ultimate unification (not to be confused with the not-so-salty Koreans because actual violence was actually involved in an era where the Emperor was the nearest thing to a nuke), his death was to be at the same period as the ultimate demise of Cao Cao's greatest adversary. That's before the alliance of Sun Quan and Liu Bei together with Zhou Yu (Zhuge Liang wasn't involved because Luo Guanzhong was culpable for spreading #fakenews) caused him to tank like a Tankyrgios. Then again, history is the alpha bitch for a very good reason. Idiocy is the child of humanity while irony is the mother thereof. At the risk of sounding like a feminist, no human being can ever prevail against the alpha bitch. Period. No pun intended by the way.
Against Yuan Shang and Yuan Xi, it's very easy to take it... well, easy. The reason why was that the two losers actually escaped to the geographical gateway to the Korean Peninsula. There, they met up with a bunch of non-Chinese people. Not the Koreans, but the tribe of Wuhuan. Traditionally, nomadic tribesmen from the north were known to be aggressive. Unlike the Koreans, it's not due to a siege mentality caused by a history of getting invaded left, right, and centre. There were times where they got invaded by China, but there were also moments where Han Solo wasn't Chinese. More notable cases would involve both halves of the Song dynasty and the Ming dynasty. The former was a case of consecutive invasion where you got the Khitans and Jurchens (Chinese history buffs should be familiar with the Humiliation of Jingkang) during the northern half with the Mongols attacking during the southern half. As for the latter, we got the Manchurians. Ironically, the Qing dynasty was formed in the most heroic manner due to Li Zicheng's act of rebellion. Well, sort of since politics were involved.
The Han dynasty was no stranger to invasions from the north. Diplomatic relationship with the Xiongnu ethnicity was seen as a dicey affair. Dicier than the current relationship between the U.S and China/Russia/both. There were moments of peace. Then there were moments where history rolled a one for the sake of trolling. This was how a fellow warlord of Cao Cao and Yuan Shao earned his fame. More famously known as General Loong's ex-boss, Gongsun Zan was a much-feared adversary in the eyes of the northern tribes. But not Yuan Shao. Read what Kuok Kah had to say concerning the Yuans and the Wuhuan tribe.
[公虽威震天下，胡恃其远，必不设备。因其无备，卒然击之，可破灭也。且袁绍有恩于民夷，而尚兄弟生存。今四州之民，徒以威附，德施未加，舍而南征，尚因乌丸之资，招其死主之臣，胡人一动，民夷俱应，以生蹋顿之心，成觊觎之计，恐青、冀非己之有也。]
Translate:
Your military might may be very well known now, but the Wuhuan will definitely not set up defences because they are deluded by a false sense of security since they are far away from you. As such, if you seize this opportunity to launch a surprise attack on them, you can eliminate them. Besides, Yuan Shao treated the ethnic minorities well and the Yuan brothers are still alive. Now, the people of the four provinces (i.e. Ji, Qing, You, and Bing) submit to you because they fear your military might, and you've yet to pacify them through benevolent governance. If you abandon the campaign and head south (against Liu Biao) instead, Yuan Shang will be aided by the Wuhuan and rally those previously under their deceased master (i.e. Yuan Shao and possibly Yuan Tan as well). Once the Hu people make their move, both the civilians and other ethnic minorities will answer the call. The ambition of Tadun will be aroused. By then, the region of Qing and Yi will not be ours any longer.
At this point in time, Cao Cao was in a comfortable situation. So comfortable, he's actually planning to attack Liu Biao in order to annex the Jing Province. The Jing Province was known for two things:
1. The fact that the Hokkiens, Teochews, and Cantonese of every Singaporean Chinese came from there.
Correction: The map you'll see below proved me wrong. Apologies for jumping the gun. Fujian isn't part of the Jing Province. It used to be part of Jiangdong.
2. The Jing Province was always a region of strategic value. It's not just Cao Cao. When the Mongols invaded southern Song, guess which was their number one target? Definitely not Lin'an because the capital was not at the Jing Province. But close enough for the likes of Kublai Khan who were quite obviously unrelated to the likes of Sajid Khan or Amir Khan due to ethnicity differences.
Cao Cao's decision to ride all the way to the gateway of Korea wasn't a popular one. The details are written in Pt V, so I'm not gonna copy and paste here.
Ultimately, Kuok Kah's insistence that his boss must pull off the greatest risk pass ever had two reasons.
1. The Wuhuan tribesmen believed Cao Cao wouldn't be coming up that fast. In fact, it's very likely they're assuming Cao Cao would attack the Jing Province first. To be fair, they were nearly correct if that's the case.
2. If Cao Cao decided to annex the Jing Province, he'd most likely take with him a massive army. After all, they're needed to cow Liu Biao into submission. The moment Cao Cao's troops marched south, things would go south for him as a unified army of the Yuans and Wuhuan could easily destabilise the four northern provinces. Most likely this would begin from the You Province and spill over to the provinces of Ji and Qing afterwards, hence Kuok Kah placing more emphasis on these two places. The map is shown below.
I don't own this image. I really don't.
It was a hard battle Cao Cao had to fight. So how hard was it? In order to get the Yuan brothers and their allies, Cao Cao had to move asap across the Ji/Qing and You provinces. Afterwards, the army had to progress beyond the You Province to engage the enemy. This was effectively a race against time. Despite Kuok Kah's accurate analysis concerning the enemy's psychology, it's only a matter of time before they started destabilising the north. Kuok Kah knew this very well. Hence, those words he said below.
[“兵贵神速。今千里袭人，辎重多，难以趣利，且彼闻之，必为备；不如留辎重，轻兵兼道以出，掩其不意。”]
Translate:
Fighting a battle is a matter of speed. Although we are out to attack the enemy from afar, we are carrying too many supplies. Hence, it's hard for us to benefit. At the same time, the enemy will prepare themselves once they hear of our advance. Why not leave behind the supplies and let the light troops move faster in order to catch them off-guard?
It must be stated that at this point in time, Cao Cao had already covered a certain distance. After some web searching, I found out that the region of Yi where Cao Cao took a breather was part of the Ji Province. This meant Cao Cao's progress was quite slow, if not very slow. And there's still the You Province waiting ahead. Which now comes to the interesting question of why Kuok Kah never advocated for a light cavalry approach right from the beginning. The reason could be due to the need for supplies to sustain the entire army. Which means Kuok Kah's strategy was to split the light troops away from the main force rather than one whole army of such units. In warfare, light troops, be they infantry or cavalry, were not meant to fight pitched battles. Their role was to scout, raid, and disrupt the enemy's advance. Therefore, such soldiers were much better suited for terrain warfare where cover, high ground, and rocky paths were meant to protect and hinder. That's why they're called skirmishers. And using a unit of skirmishers to deal with a numerically superior opposition was nothing less than throwing a die hoping to get a six or twenty. But was there any other choice? Kuok Kah's advice could be seen as something done in the name of necessity. In this kind of damned either way scenario, pragmatism would be the intuitive approach causing great/greater/greatest harm. That's why Kuok Kah decided to be counter-intuitive.
As a military man (let alone a stable genius), Cao Cao didn't need people to tell him light cavalry units should never fight a battle on the open field unless horsemanship was part of the ethnic identity. Which in this case would apply to the Wuhuan (or just about any northern tribe). Now it must be stated that Cao Cao still held command over the four northern provinces. What this means was that by passing through the Ji and You provinces to bump off the Yuans and their Wuhuan allies, Cao Cao didn't have to worry much about the enemy so long they didn't move first. At the same time, any flat terrain is never 100% flat. There would be hills here and there providing cover and high ground. And that's where the part on catching the enemy off-guard came. Ideally, the surprise element should come from the high ground since it's arguably way easier for enemies to look straight than to look up. At the same time, a lack of defensive preparations meant the enemy couldn't be bothered to look up anyway. Even if they're to look up (or ahead depending on the situation), a lack of preparation would result in the inability to react.
Also, light troops would always operate in smaller numbers per squad in order to maximise the usage of mobility. In other words, facing a numerically inferior opposition actually threw the numerically superior Wuhuan off-guard. If they decided to scramble and organise, they'd risk getting attacked straightaway because no sane enemy would ever give the opposition breathing space. On the other hand, they were unable to predict who should make the first move and when if they kept staring at the enemy even though there's no Khaleesi there. It's damned if you do and equally damned if you don't. Arsenic or cyanide, pick your poison and kill yourself.
Moral of the story?
It's not so bad getting stuck in a tactical limbo if your soldiers are already well-prepared. For the Wuhuan, they're stuck in a limbo of their own making. To put it in a nutshell, they got no one to blame if their stupidity did them in. Which was exactly what happened. And Kuok Kah predicted they're not the Game and they're that damn dumb.
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